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Downstream purification creating chronic problems
June 2, 2015
By: Eric Langer
President and Managing Partner, BioPlan Associates
Outsourcing of biomanufacturing has been on the rise in recent years; one measure of success among contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs) is their ability to ensure their facilities keep up with demand. CMO constraints are not necessarily an unhealthy indicator, but must be balanced against clients’ need for access to flexible scheduling, and capacity. In fact, results from BioPlan Associates’ newly-released 12th Annual Report and Survey of Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing Capacity and Production1 show that CMOs are facing capacity constraints to a more significant degree than in recent years, all while operating at high levels of capacity. And while perceptions of future capacity constraints are more optimistic, CMOs clearly believe that, among a broad swath of improvements they will be implementing, improving their downstream purification technologies will be paramount to overcoming bottleneck challenges. What the Data Show In our annual global study of 237 biopharmaceutical manufacturers and CMOs, a surprisingly high 36% of CMOs believe their facility is experiencing at least “significant” production capacity constraints today. And if we include those experiencing at least “moderate” constraints, roughly half of CMOs today are experiencing real capacity problems. The data show some interesting trends when compared with last year’s results. Although last year about the same percentage of CMOs surveyed were experiencing at least “moderate” constraints, far more are finding constraints are worsening. This year almost twice as many report significant constraints (32.7% vs. 17.4% in 2014). Unhealthy Capacity Utilization Capacity constraints aren’t always a negative for CMOs, as many presume future growth is based on increasing demand. Further, when properly managed, constraints can be an indicator of efficiency, but must be balanced against clients’ need for access to flexible capacity. On the other hand, this year’s survey results show CMOs may be hitting limits of what would be considered a healthy level of excess (flex) capacity. This is particularly the case for mammalian cell culture—the dominant paradigm—for which CMO respondents this year estimated currently operating at an average 82% of operating capacity. This is a hefty increase from last year’s average of 58% capacity utilization. The last time we saw levels in this range were 10 years ago during what was often referred to as an industry-wide capacity crunch. Likewise, CMOs this year estimate operating at around 68% of microbial fermentation capacity, up from last year’s 54%. With CMOs operating at significantly higher levels of capacity this year than last, it’s easy to see why perceptions of capacity constraints are also trending up. Future Capacity Constraints Even so, it’s encouraging to see that CMO respondents to this year’s study are less likely to perceive significant capacity constraints in the medium-term than they are to be experiencing them today. Compared to the 36% experiencing significant or severe constraints today, only 1 in 5 are expecting that level of bottlenecks in 2020—essentially, CMOs are confident of their ability to manage capacity problems in the future. Overall, our data indicates that about 8 in 10 CMOs expect to face some level of capacity constraint at their facility within 5 years’ time, down from roughly 9 in 10 last year. Along with that, fewer respondents this year expect severe or significant constraints in 5 years than did last year. CMOs Spending on Expanding Facilities Although CMOs this year are concerned about their current situation, they are more positive about their ability to handle future capacity constraint problems. This may be a reflection of anticipated spending on new facility construction: About 7 in 10 CMOs plan to increase their spending on new facilities this year, and the overall level of budget increases outpace expected spending hikes in many other areas, including staff hiring, process development, and new technologies for upstream and downstream production. Moreover, CMOs this year estimate expanding their mammalian cell culture capacity by a substantial 77% over the next 5 years, double the overall amount of expansion (39%) they had forecast last year. Clearly, these organizations seeing that they are operating at high levels of mammalian production capacity today forecast expansions in the future that will ease their constraints. CMOs may also be considering the current climate, in which, in contrast to the blockbuster approvals of the early 2000s, most of the current and upcoming drug approvals are for niche products with inherent smaller markets, additional indications of therapy on existing products, new countries, for sub-$1b markets, or for biosimilars/biogenerics production. While the onset of biosimilars and biogenerics production is likely to favor CMOs, many of the new products in the pipeline can be absorbed into biomanufacturers’ existing facilities, as the manufacturing volumes are smaller. For biomanufacturers, whose expected future constraints are more moderate in nature than CMOs, there is less alarm, as there are now more options for retrofitting existing facilities to add incremental facility in a relatively short amount of time. And the option for outsourcing will of course continue to be attractive, too. Avoiding Constraints As part of our ongoing trend analysis of the causes—and potential alleviators—of capacity constraints, we asked CMOs to evaluate the factors likely to create production capacity constraints at their facility over the next 5 years. CMOs were most likely to report facility constraints (68%, up from 56% in 2014) as the source of capacity constraints, with this factor consistently atop the rankings over the past several years. In an interesting divergence from last year’s results, however, the physical capacity of downstream purification equipment was the factor second-most likely to be fingered as a culprit by CMOs. This factor was cited by a majority (53%) of respondents this year, up from 37% last year. That’s an important indicator, given improvements in purification technology that suppliers are investing in to move the industry away from such problems, including:
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