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Who should lead and their impact?
November 9, 2016
By: Girish Malhotra
Contributing Editor
Every business in every industry, whether it’s the financial services sector, the transportation industry, or the durables and consumer goods sector, as well as pharma, has to adhere to safety and product quality regulations. If regulators can point to oversights, errors and shortcomings, businesses have to fix their operations. To stay ahead, businesses must undergo the process of continuous improvement and innovation in order to compete in today’s business world. Modern pharma businesses have done an excellent job serving the global needs of patients for more than 100 years. However, their business model has remained relatively staid when it comes to process innovations in R&D and manufacturing. Sooner rather than later, the current model needs to be reconfigured and rejigged.1,2 This observation is fortified by a McKinsey & Co study.3 The opening paragraphs of the report were very telling five years ago when it was first published and, in my estimation, are still valid. Exhibits 2 and 3 of the report give us a snap shot of the industry and even though it is a bit out-of-date now, it revealed what has happened over the last ten years. We have seen the total number of generic companies have increased whereas the number of brand companies due to merger and acquisition (M&A) have decreased. A more recent report, “Generic medicines, the opportunity for growth,”4 projects generic drugs sales to 2019 and identifies the need for legacy drugs—infection, pain, cardiovascular and some chronic diseases—in countries outside the developed markets and also makes a very poignant remark about their affordability and access. It is true that drug prices outside developed countries are a fraction of what they are in developed countries, but even at those low prices they are unaffordable to much of the population.5 I have used 80% (~5.8 billion)6 of the global population as the potential market size of individuals that have an increased need for pharmaceuticals. The remainder, about 1.4 billion, represents the population of developed countries. They have either government sponsored or mutually subsidized healthcare programs. Table 14 provides an illustration of generic drugs sales per million between developed and pharmerging countries.7 Since the generic sales for rest of the world (ROW) sales are not suggested in either report4,7 I have used an IMS report8 to increase ROW generic sales by 10%. However, the numbers in Table 1 can be interpreted in many different ways. The following are some of my interpretations:
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